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Axios Breaks 14-Point US-Iran MOU — Witkoff/Kushner-Araghchi via Pakistan, 48-Hour Iranian Response Deadline, 12–15yr Enrichment Moratorium Landing Zone, ~440 kg HEU Possibly to US, Phased Hormuz Reopening, Snap Inspections, Frozen-Asset Release; Largest Single-Day Market Repricing of the War — Brent -8 to -10% to $99–102, Bloomberg Dollar Index at Feb-26 Low, Kospi +6.6%, Samsung +14.8% to $1T Cap, S&P Futures Record 7,259, Treasury Yields -9bp, Gold $4,701/oz; CMA CGM "San Antonio" Struck May 5 ~18:30 GMT (Maltese Flag, Filipino Crew, Multiple Injured, Attribution Disputed); USAF KC-135 Reportedly Disappeared Near Qatar After Squawking 7700 (Single-Source, LOW Credibility); Iran Formalizes Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) — Suez-Style Toll Regime, 30% to IRGC, Israel-Banned, Japanese Ship Reportedly Paid $2M; Israel Deploys Iron Dome Battery to UAE — First Foreign Deployment Ever, IDF Personnel On-Site; Araghchi Meets Wang Yi in Beijing — Wang Yi Calls War "Illegitimate," China Invokes Anti-Foreign-Sanctions Law for First Time; RFI: China Vetoed Early-April UNSC Draft Authorizing Force in Hormuz; Trump-Xi Summit Confirmed May 14–15; Saudi/Gulf Coalition Joins US Chapter VII UNSC Draft Despite Merz/Spain Friction; Iraq's Ali al-Zaidi Joins Pakistan + China as Third Mediator; War on the Rocks (Levitt) — Iranian Unit 4000 Commander Rahman Moqadam Killed (Explains Lack of US-Homeland Attacks); Trump Threatens "Much Higher Level and Intensity" Bombing if Iran Refuses; Pezeshkian's "Impossible to Submit" vs. Trump's "Fantastic Progress"; Multiple Spanish/Indian Sources Allege Khamenei Killed Feb 28 (LOW Credibility); ~1,600 Ships / ~20,000 Mariners Stranded; Project Freedom Suspended After Only 2-3 Vessels Transited; Cancian (CSIS) — 50–80% of US THAAD/Patriot Stocks Burned

Day 2 of "Project Freedom" Suspended Within 24h — Pakistan-Brokered Pause Keeps Blockade, Drops Offensive Escorts (Only 2 of 1,550+ Vessels Actually Transited, 22,500 Mariners Stranded); UAE Bombarded for 2nd Consecutive Day — Iron Dome Reportedly Intercepting in Emirati Airspace, Khatam al-Anbiya HQ "Categorically Denies"; Reuters — US Intel Says Iran's Nuclear Program "Barely Degraded" Directly Contradicting Hegseth/Trump "Obliterated"; Rubio Formally Declares "Operation Epic Fury" Complete (War Powers Workaround); Reeves–Bessent IMF Blowup — Bessent "What If a Nuke Hit London," Reeves "I Do Not Work for You" — Largest US-UK Rift Since Suez 1956, 65% UK Opposition; Trump Withdraws 5,000 US Troops From Germany as "Punishment" for Merz; CNN/Mako — Israeli-US Joint Strike Package "Ready for Execution," Daily Target-Bank Update, 6,000 US Personnel Inside Israel; Graham/Bacon Push "Large, Strong, and Short" Strike; Velayati Declares Strait "Closed," IRIB Email-Permit Regime; US Gas $4.48/gal (+50%, +$23.9B Consumer Cost), Brent $109–115; Trump–Pope Leo XIV Public Exchange; 30 House Democrats Demand Rubio Acknowledge Israeli Nukes; Mojtaba Khamenei "Incapacitated" Rumor (Russian Source); Iran Inflation 73.5%, Rial 1.81M/USD, FDD $435M/Day; Trump-Xi May 14–15, Araghchi Flying to Beijing

Day 1 of "Project Freedom" Goes Kinetic — Apache/Seahawk Helos Sink 6-7 IRGC Fast Boats, Maersk *Alliance Fairfax* Transits Hormuz Under Destroyer Overwatch; Iran Strikes UAE for First Time Since April 8 — Fujairah Petroleum Industrial Zone Fire (3 Indians Wounded), ADNOC Tanker Drone-Hit, HMM Namu Engine-Room Explosion, Bukha (Oman) Residential Strike; IRGC Publishes "Control Zone" Map Extending Qeshm to Fujairah Emirate; Araghchi Rebrands "Project Deadlock"; Trump Same-Day "Wipe Iran Off the Face of the Earth" / "Mini War"; Israel "Ready to Resume Immediately," Netanyahu Cancels Corruption-Trial Testimony; Hemmati (CB Governor) Urges Pezeshkian for Peace Deal vs 63-MP "Hands on the Trigger" Letter; Trump 37% / 62% Disapprove (Record); Macron "France Will Not Participate"; ICICI-Shanghai Settles 2M Bbl Iranian Crude in Full RMB; Wuttke: "US Fighting Without Winning, China Winning Without Fighting"; Asia Times' Bryen — Camp Buehring March 1 Killed 6 US Troops + CH-47; 800+ Patriots Burned Week-1 vs 650-700 Annual Production; Kharg Storage Saturation Thursday/Friday; Reuters — US Officials "Contemplating" Ground Raid for 440 kg HEU; A Haber's Güçlüer: May 17 = End of Extended Ceasefire Window

Iran's 14-Point Counter-Proposal Lands; Trump Pre-Rejects on Truth Social ("47 Years"); Cooper Briefs 3-Option Strike Menu, Embarks USS Tripoli; Counterfire — Failed Isfahan Uranium Raid (A-10 + 2 Black Hawks Lost); CSIS — Patriot 45-60% / THAAD ~80% / >1,000 Tomahawk; 6-Year Replenishment; Vance-Hegseth Rift on Costs/Stocks; Rubio's $25B Emergency Bypass (3rd Time); Mojtaba Convalescent — "Collective Generals' Rule," Fatwa Brake Removed; Nikzad's 12-Point Hormuz Law (Israeli Ships Banned, 30% Tolls to IRGC); Tanker HUGE Reaches Lombok; China "Prohibition Order" on 5 Refineries; Spirit Airlines Collapses; 61% Vietnam-Mistake Polling, Trump 34%; Carlson Breaks; WPR 47-50 Fails; Walla Exposes Jordan as Hidden Partner; Mohammadi Cardiac Crisis; Iran Info-War 30× Engagement Spike

Day +1 After War Powers Deadline; Iran Tables Pakistan-Mediated Proposal (Hormuz for Nuclear Postponement) — Trump "Not Satisfied," "Blast or Deal"; Pentagon Pulls 5,000 Troops From Germany; OFAC Criminalizes Hormuz Tolls Incl. Charity Routing; Hormuz Transits <10/Day, 850-870 Vessels & ~20,000 Sailors Stranded; IRGC Formalizes Mojtaba's 2,000 km Persian Gulf Command; Hezbollah Fiber-Optic FPV "No Efficient Countermeasure" Wounds 4 IDF; Lebanon Dead 2,618; Iran Told Saudi It Would "Crush" UAE; Pezeshkian-Ghalibaf Move Against Araghchi-Vahidi-IRGC Channel; Trump Calls WPR "Totally Unconstitutional"

May 1 War Powers Deadline Day; CENTCOM Briefs Trump on 3 Strike Options; Dark Eagle Hypersonic Requested; Brent $126.41 (4-Yr High); Senate WPR 47-50 (Collins First Cross); Hegseth: 60-Day Clock "Pauses" During Ceasefire; Mojtaba "At The Bottom Of Its Waters"; Drones Over Tehran @00:25 UTC May 1; Pentagon $25B vs. Bilmes $1T; Hezbollah Fiber-Optic Drone Hits IDF M548; IDF 10km Into Lebanon; UAE Quits OPEC Today, "9-Month War" Posture; Trump Floats NATO Suspension of Spain

WSJ — Trump Orders Indefinite Hormuz Blockade; 4AM "NO MORE MR. NICE GUY" Post Sends Brent to $115; Treasury "Operation Economic Wrath" Names Hengli Petrochemical; Kpler — Iran Storage Cliff in 12-22 Days; Sa'ar Contradicts Trump (Iran Hasn't Resumed Enrichment); Susan Collins Breaks on War Powers; Hegseth Testifies Wednesday; $5.6B Munitions Burned in First 2 Days

UAE Quits OPEC Effective May 1; WH Tasks IC to Model "Victory Exit"; Trump Approval 34% (Term Low); Hormuz Transits −95.3% (UN); First USN Deck-Gun Strike Since 1988 Praying Mantis; GCC Declares Closure "Illegal"; Mossad Chief on Record: War Ends with Regime Change; NYT — Mojtaba "Gravely Wounded"

Day 60: First LNG Transit Since Feb 28 (Mubaraz); Iran Oil Storage 10-22 Days From Full; Vance vs Pentagon on Munitions; War Powers T-72h; BP Profits Double; HAYI Terror Network in Europe; Bahrain Mass Citizenship Revocations; Mossad Escalation Blocked

Trump Rejects Iran's Proposal in Situation Room; Rubio: "Those Are International Waterways"; Merz Declares US "Humiliated"; Vance Challenges Pentagon; Brent $109; War Powers T-3; Qatar First Deficit; North Korea 5 Missiles; Iran Crypto $2.3B

Iran's 3-Stage Proposal Crystallized (Axios/Bloomberg); Araghchi Meets Putin in St. Petersburg; Brent Past $108; Jubail Strike Triggers Global PCB Crisis; Pentagon Orders 700% More Patriots; Fertilizer Crisis Threatens 2027 Harvests; NPT Review Opens

Trump Issues 3-Day Oil Ultimatum; Islamabad Collapses Again; Iran Tables 3-Stage Settlement (Nuclear Last); Hormuz Toll Scheme Pitched to Oman; Pentagon Hid $5B+ Base Damage; Netanyahu Political Collapse; Lebanon Ceasefire Unravels

WHCD Shooting — Trump Evacuated, Vows "Won't Deter Me"; Pezeshkian Warns Talks Are "Smokescreen"; Iron Dome Deployed to UAE (First Ever); 11-Ton Uranium Stockpile Revealed; Baltic NATO Arms Delays; Ghalibaf Steps Down

Islamabad Collapses — Trump Cancels Envoy Trip; Leaked Letter Defies Supreme Leader on Nuclear Red Line; Pentagon Hid $5B+ Base Damage; IRGC Threatens "Largest Missile Strike in History"; Gulf Data Centers Targeted; IEA Releases 400M Barrels

Vahidi Wins Power Struggle — Ghalibaf Ousted from Negotiations; Tehran Proposal Delivered via Pakistan; Iran Retains 70% Missile Inventory; USS Bush Makes 3-Carrier Fleet; Ghost Fleet: 34 Tankers, $910M Revenue; Bessent: Forced Shutdown in 2-3 Days

Islamabad Contradiction — US Confirms Talks, Iran Denies Them; Hegseth Declares Blockade "Gift to the World" as Only 5 Ships Transit; Mojtaba Burns Revealed; Consumer Sentiment Record Low (49.8); $344M Crypto Freeze; IRGC Seizes Maersk Ship

Pentagon Threatens NATO Allies — Spain Suspension, UK Falklands Review; "Indefinite" Ceasefire Is Actually 3-5 Days; 1,100 JASSM-ERs Consumed (Taiwan Stockpile); Iran Collects Hormuz Tolls in Yuan; IRGC Halts Peace Talks; Ifo at May 2020 Low

Trump Orders "Shoot and Kill" on Mine-Layers — 3rd Carrier USS Bush Arrives; Katz Demands Green Light to "Return Iran to Stone Age"; 80%+ THAAD Consumed; Mojtaba Communicates via Courier; Tehran Air Defenses Activate; Brent $105.56

Carlson Breaks With Trump — IRGC Collects First Hormuz Tolls (in Yuan); DIA Contradicts White House on Iran Capability; Navy Secretary Fired; GPS Sea Mines; China Offers HEU Custody; Undersea Cable Threat

Ceasefire Paradox — IRGC Seizes 3 Ships During "Indefinite" Truce; Trump's Extension Is Actually 3-5 Days; 34 Tankers Slip Blockade ($910M); Germany Halves GDP; Lufthansa Cuts 20K Flights; Pentagon: 6 Months to Clear Mines

Trump Blinks — "Bombing Tonight" at 9AM, Indefinite Ceasefire by 7PM; Talks Collapse; Carlson Apologizes; DPA Activated; 45% Munitions Consumed; M/T Tifani Seized in Indian Ocean; Frozen Conflict Returns to #1

Ceasefire Extended 24h — Iran Secretly Green-Lights Talks While Publicly Denying; 11 US Planes in Islamabad; NBC: 1 of 3 Nuclear Sites Destroyed; Vitol: 700M Barrels Lost; Trafigura: Reserves 1 Month; Frozen Conflict Returns to #2

Eve of Expiry — Strait Collapses to 3 Ships, Kuwait Force Majeure, US "Doesn't Know Who Controls Tehran," Xi Calls MBS, Russia Detains Israelis, Trump Delegation Departure Unconfirmed, 24h to Ceasefire End

IRGC "Soft Coup" — Vahidi/Zolghadr Sideline Araghchi, Recall Negotiators; 6 NATO Allies Refuse US Warships; UAE Yuan Ultimatum; China Offers Iran Radar + HEU Custody; WSJ: Wiles Locked Trump Out of War Room

USS Spruance Seizes TOUSKA — First Kinetic Blockade Engagement, Iran Drone Retaliation, Talks Rejected, Trump Threatens Every Power Plant, MEE Leaks Deal Framework, Oil +8%, Dubai $160, 48h to Ceasefire Expiry

IRGC Turns Back Chinese Ship — WSJ: Trump Excluded From Own War Room, Tasnim Calls Araghchi "Idiot," Houthis Threaten Bab al-Mandeb, NK Fires Missiles, Full Regional War Now #1 Outcome

Situation Room Emergency — Trump "War Within Days," IRGC Fires on Sanmar Herald, Iran Refuses Talks, 60% Launchers Retained, Diego Garcia Buildup, 3 Carriers Converging, 3 Days to Ceasefire Expiry

IRGC Fires on Tankers — Hormuz Re-Closed, 20-Ship Convoy Aborts, Trump Wednesday Bombing Ultimatum, French Peacekeeper Killed, $760M Suspicious Trade, 500M Barrels/$50B Lost in 50 Days

Hormuz Whiplash — Iran FM Declares "Open," Oil Crashes 12%, IRGC Reverses Within Hours, Zero Tankers Transit, $20B Deal Denied by All Sides, IDF Claims $100B Damage

Lebanon Ceasefire (Immediately Violated) — Iran Mocks "Nuclear Dust" With Persian Proverb, House War Powers Fails by 1 Vote, Paris 40-Nation Summit Excludes US, Pentagon Taps Auto Industry for Missiles

S&P 500 All-Time Record vs. Senate War Powers Defeat — Iran's First Hormuz Concession, Blockade Leaks 7-20+ Ships, Bessent Launches "Economic Fury," Rystad Doubles Damage to $58B

War "Finished" vs. 10K Troops Deploying — Trump-Xi Letters, FT Exposes Chinese Spy Satellite, Blockade Leaks, Tehran Bombing

War "Finished"? — Trump Confirms Thursday Talks, IMF Slashes Global Growth, Israel-Lebanon Direct Talks Since 1993, Russia $19B Windfall

Blockade Porous — IEA Declares Largest Supply Disruption in History, PrSM Exhausted, Saudi-Pakistan Pact Leaked, Xi Breaks Silence

Blockade Day 1 — First Interceptions, Physical Crude Hits $149 Record, NATO Allies Refuse, Iran Offers 5-Year Enrichment Moratorium

Blockade Ordered — Talks Collapse, Trump Orders Hormuz Blockade, Full Regional War Now #1 Outcome

Islamabad Talks Collapse — 21-Hour Marathon, Blockade Signaling, De-Dollarization Accelerates

Iran Ceasefire Day 3 — CPI Shock, Mines Unrecoverable, Islamabad Eve

Iran Ceasefire Day 2 — Lebanon Fracture, Hormuz Toll Standoff, Mojtaba Breaks Silence

Iran Ceasefire Overnight — Iran Threatens to Walk Islamabad

Iran Ceasefire Day 1 — Lebanon Carve-Out Fractures the Truce

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